Oregon Ducks #2 @ Arizona State (10/18/12)

THE WAIT IS FINALLY OVER.

After a huge 12 day wait, it's finally almost game day. The Ducks drought has been rough but we're finally back and ready to kick some Devil butt. Coming off of a huge win against the Huskies (52-21), the Ducks look to improve to 7-0 (4-0) this Thursday night against a rather strong Sun Devils team that sits 5-1 and 3-0 in the Pac12 and just missed the Top 25 this week by a hair. Out of all the games this year, this one has me the most worried. And when I say worried, I mean worried that the win won't be a blowout. Peep this:

The Sun Devils are letting up an average of only 14.2 points a game this year, good for 9th in the entire FBS. Yikes. They haven't really gotten into the meat of their schedule yet (still have to face Oregon, Oregon State, USC, and Arizona) but I don't see this defense as one to joke around with. In contrast to that statement, the Ducks have outscored the Sun Devils 175-81 in a current four game winning streak in Tempe, and Oregon has a conference best 10 game road winning streak against the Pac12 dating back to November of 2009 on the line. I suppose that's some reassurance if any. But alas, more stats! The Sun Devils are on a 3 game win streak at home against Top 25 opponents! The insanity!

ASU has been relying heavy on Sophomore quarterback Taylor Kelly, who ranks third in the nation with a 175.98 passer rating. He has thrown for exactly 1,600 yards in 6 games to go along with 14 TD's and just 2 interceptions. I know what this seems like; I have a huge hard on for ASU right now. But, let me bring them back to earth, since of course, this is a UO blog anyway (duh). These defensive numbers of theirs are skewed since they have faced some of the WORST offensive teams in the country. They have faced the 111th (Missouri), 115th (Illinois), 116th (Colorado), and 117th (Utah) ranked offenses.  If that doesn't scream "fluke" then I don't know what does. And Missouri actually beat them too. Their run game, although averaging nearly 185 ypg, can be lackluster at times and hardly matches up with Oregon's running attack. The only question I have coming into this game is that, when the Sun Devils are down and start chucking the ball every play, will the Oregon secondary be able to keep up? There will either be quite a few interceptions or quite a few big gains. It looks like it can go either way. I believe that clock management will play a huge factor in this game and if Oregon can consistently drive down the field as usual and brick wall Kelly each defensive drive, then they will bring home a big W.

Final Score Prediction: 34-21 in favor of Oregon

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-Lee

RECAP: Oregon 52 - Washington 21

As I previously stated in Thursday's blog post, I said Marcus Mariota would pick the Washington defense apart. He did just that last night. I also said Kenjon Barner would have a great run game (that's almost guaranteed). Call me a prophet, I guess. Barner finished with 122 rushing yards and Mariota was poised in the pocket all night, spreading the ball out to 7 different receivers. The interception on the first drive didn't seem to shake him at all. Oregon looked stale on their second possession and were forced to punt, but recovered the kick from a fumble on the Washington 20 yard line. After that fumble recovery, it was cruise control for the Oregon offense. De'Anthony Thomas scored on a beautiful 16 yard run to make it 7-0 and the Ducks would not look back from that point. Oregon regained possession with 5:04 left in the first and drove down the field, capped off with a Mariota to Keenon Lowe TD good for 21 yards. What really got Ducks fans excited was Washington's next drive. Safety Avery Patterson read Keith Price perfectly and intercepted the pass and took it 43 yards to the house in a classic "The Pick"-esque fashion. At the end of the 1st, yes the 1st, the Ducks were sitting pretty with a 21-0 lead.

WR Josh Huff scores on a 34 yard reception.

The second quarter opened up with the Huskies stringing together a decent drive and scoring on a 1 yard run to make it 21-7. Oregon answered by driving straight down the field and finished it with a 10 yard reception by TE Colt Lyeria. LB Boseko Lokombo forced a fumble on Washington's next drive and the ball was recovered by Brian Jackson. The Ducks wasted no time with the ball, as usual, and scored in 50 seconds with a finesse touchdown by WR Josh Huff. Huff caught the ball and turned down the field, fended off a defensive back, and dove into the front corner of the endzone, good for 34 yards. That would be Oregon's last score in the 2nd (Beard missed a 41 yard FG) and the Ducks went into the locker room with a 35-7 lead.

TE Colt Lyeria 

Washington opened the 2nd half with a three-and-out and kicked it away. Oregon slowly made their way down the field with a 4:06 drive (longest of the game) and finished it with a 28 yard field goal. The Huskies answered with a rushing touchdown on their next drive. The score was now 38-14. Washington must have been getting aggravated and started playing pretty bush league, dishing out late hits to Oregon receivers. The rest of Oregon's next drive rested mainly on Thomas, who had 32 yards off of 4 carries. This possession was extended into the 4th quarter. The drive was capped off with another Mariota-Lyeria touchdown good for 13 yards. Washington's next possession fell apart when LB Kiko Alonso forced a fumble and recovered it himself. Chip Kelly brought in the bench from this point forward. True freshman RB Byron Marshall carried the ball three straight times (his first being an impressive 32 yard run) and scored with 11:39 left in the game. The Huskies pieced together an impressive drive the whole way down to Oregon's 8 yard line, but CB Issac Dixon intercepted Price's pass on the 2. It was once again the Marshall show. Five straight carries for 39 yards gave the Ducks good movement but they ultimately couldn't finish and punted away. The Huskies scored in garbage time, then Oregon took a knee to finish the game. Final score: 52-21 in favor of Oregon.

Oregon Statistics:
Time of Possession: 24:42
Total Yards: 497
Total Rushing: 52 attempts for 299 yards (5.8 ypc)
Total Passing: 15/24 for 198 yards
Penalties: 7-74

Washington Statistics:
Time of Possession: 35:18
Total Yards: 353
Total Rushing: 46 attempts for 208 yards (4.5 ypc)
Total Passing: 19/31 for 145 yards
Penalties: 8-102

Player of the Game: QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota showed excellent decision making all night. His passes were locked on target and his arm strength showed. He also turned a lot of sacks or no-gains into positive yards. He added 7 rushes for 40 yards to his total. Mariota passed for 4 touchdowns in the game (tying his career high) and ended the night with a 178.5 passer rating. I really can't say enough about this kid. If he doesn't pull a Masoli or Thomas and stays for all 4 years, he can be something truly special to this offense. He's learning a lot about the game as the season goes on, and he's learning to put the ball where it needs to go and let his teammates take it from there. "I just really have to trust them, and trust my ability to get them the ball," Mariota said. "I think today was a really good example of a team effort." Rock on, Mariota.

Oregon gets a week off and looks to improve to 7-0 this season against Arizona State at Sun Devil Stadium two Thursdays from now. The game will be aired nationally on ESPN at 6pm PST / 9pm EST.

Useful Links:
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GIVEAWAY WEEK ONE

As promised, this will be week one of the giveaway. It's nothing special, but for a hardcore collector, it's cool to have! I'm going through my memorabilia and found some stuff each week to send out to some fans. This week is an autographed Dante Rosario 8x10. Rules: Post your score prediction for tonight's game. Person closest (you can go over) will win! In the event of a tie, also post how many yards you think Barner will have. That will be the tiebreaker. Example: 54-20 Oregon, 155 yards. Head on over to the Facebook page to enter your predictions!

UPDATE: Jeremy Manning, big Ducks fan from Washington, won the contest on Facebook last night. He guessed the final to be 52-20, only one point off! Congrats!

Oregon Ducks #2 vs. Washington #23 (10/6/12)

Before we dive into all of the upset hoopla, let's just take a look at this little statistic:

The Ducks have won of 27 of 28 at Autzen Stadium and have outscored the Huskies by an average of 25.3 points in winning the last eight meetings.

Sit back and relax, Duck faithful. I'm not one to base the future off of prior year's stats and figures, but Oregon is so consistent against PAC10(12) opponents that it's almost a damn near guarantee. Coming into this week, Washington is floating off of their 17-13 upset win over Stanford last week. Head coach Steve Sarkasian says that their defense will be ready for Oregon's high flying offense.  So far this season against ranked opponents, Washington is averaging 10ppg and is allowing 29ppg. These numbers are slightly skewed by the 41-3 blowout they suffered to #3 LSU, but I believe that luck was on their side (this time, not working against them *crickets*) in the Stanford game. If they would have lost that game, their Pac12 record would be 0-1 to go with a 2-2 record and there would be no hype to this game at all.

I've taken all of that into factoring my prediction that this will not even be a close game. The spread is a laughable 24.5 and Washington's numbers aren't anything to look at (101st in passing, 106th in rushing, 96th in points for). I can see Mariota picking the defense apart and Barner having his way with the run game. Clearly I have a bias towards Oregon, and I'll usually give credit to the opposing team when credit is due, but I can't see this being a showcase matchup that many people are hyping it up to be. 

Final score prediction: 41-17 in favor of Oregon. 

All of that aside, and turning the tables towards me, I have no excuse for abandoning this blog as well as my facebook for the better half of two seasons. I know that a lot of people have come to this site (over 105,000 page views globally) over the years and I feel bad for letting everyone down. But, I'm here to stay this time. Please keep showing this site and the Facebook page love and I'll keep writing, reporting, and posting! I love all of you guys and I definitely think that the Duck Nation is the best in the country! Quack attack, let's fly! Win the day.

-Lee

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